With the number of flights reduced to a fraction of what they were before the pandemic, it's hard to imagine that there could be a pilot shortage on the horizon. As of February, global airlines were only flying at about 47% of pre-Covid capacity, based on our own analysis of data from OAG and the International Air Transport Association. But by 2025, after global demand in domestic and international travel expands beyond 2019 levels, we expect a worldwide shortfall of at least 34,000 commercial pilots — almost 10% of the total workforce. That gap, which will begin to be felt as early as next year, is based on a modest recovery scenario. If we were to see a more rapid recovery, that shortage could reach 50,000.

The danger: A pilot shortage could ultimately limit industry growth later in the decade by as much as 10% to 12%, according to our analysis. And thanks to the pivotal role air transport plays in the global economy — aviation accounts for about 4% of global gross domestic product — slower industry recovery could temper economic growth worldwide.

While it will be close to two years before passenger volume globally returns to pre-pandemic levels and longer than that for revenue to fully recover, demand for pilots isn't determined by passenger volume. It's linked to flight hours and the number of planes flying, and airlines are already bringing aircraft back into service faster than expected to stimulate demand.

Initially, airlines will be able to draw from the ranks of furloughed pilots and the approximately 100,000 pilots still on carrier payrolls who are not flying full schedules or who are on voluntary company leave. But especially in North America, many experienced pilots took early retirement and are unlikely to come back. Younger pilots, who have the least experience and will be among the last to be called back, may enter new professions.